Last week, I gave my American League Season Preview, so this week I’ll give my National League Season Preview as well as my World Series and individual award selections. Without further ado, let’s get the picks:
National League East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals
Every team has an off-year. 2006 was that year for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves biggest weakness was their bullpen. For the first time in John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox’s successful tenure, they spent the off-season overhauling the bullpen. Closer Bob Wickman returns after being acquired midseason in 2006. Former Pittsburgh Pirate Mike Gonzales and Seattle Mariner Rafael Soriano were acquired to add unprecedented depth to the staff. The rotation has its usual depth, but it will hinge on Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton returning to form (Since this was written, Hampton has been injured and will miss the season). John Smoltz will continue to dominate and Chuck James looks to have solid sophomore year. Lance Cormier and Kyle Davis will fight for the final spot in the rotation along while spring training signee Mark Redman will take Hampton’s place in the rotation. The Braves offense scored the second most runs in the National League in 2006 and the potent offense returns this year. The right-side of the infield is different with new lead-off hitter and second baseman Kelly Johnson replacing the release Marcus Giles and rookie Scott Thorman platooning with Craig Wilson at first base replacing Adam LaRoche. The question of the season will be Andruw Jones contact as he is in the last year of his deal. Whether he returns or not, the future of the Braves offense is in the hands catcher Brian McCann and right fielder Jeff Francoeur. The New York Mets finally had everything come together in 2006 to end the Braves ownership of the NL East. The question of the off-season will center around the Mets rotation with Pedro Martinez out until July and the club’s lack of an impact acquisition in the off-season. Omar Minaya is convinced that John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey will make for a solid back-end of the rotation. To be honest, I was skeptical all off-season, but in the spring those three looked like solid up and comers. With the Mets offense behind them, they’ll look better than they are. Duaner Sanchez has yet to return from injury, so the bullpen is basically Billy Wagner and a bunch of power arms. They’ll get by, but they’ll lose a few more games without better strength in the pen. The offense with arguably the best left side of the infield in baseball with Jose Reyes and David Wright will keep the club in the top of the league in runs again. The Phillies Jimmy Rollins made the claim during the spring that Philadelphia is the team to beat in the NL East. He could be correct, but he must not have checked the team’s bullpen yet. The Phils upgraded their rotation with Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton. A full-season worth of Jamie Moyer will also help. NL Most Valuable Player Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. The offense will socre and the rotation will keep the team in games, but 2007 will look similar to the Braves of 2006 with a band of unknowns in the bullpen. If the pen behind Tom Gordon is as bad as I think, I will not be surprised to see the Florida Marlins pass the Phillies in the division. We talk so much about Reyes/Wright and Howard/Utley that the left side of the infield in south Florida gets overlooked. Third baseman Miguel Cabrera and shortstop Hanley Ramirez form one of the best, young cores for any roster in baseball. Following last seasons, surprisingly successful season, the Marlins hope to take the next step in 2007. The rotation should continue to progress and mature along with new closer Josh Johnson. With the hopes of a new stadium on the horizon as well as new manager Freddy Gonzales, the Marlins will be a team competing hard in every game this year. The Washington Nationals are set-up to be one of the worse teams in baseball this year. With a rotation of one in John Patterson, the Nats could challenge the all-time record for losses in a season. Most scouts during spring training were estimating 115 to 125 losses in the Beltway. With a new stadium opening in 2008 and a farm system decimated by Major League Baseball’s management while searching for new ownership (remember Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee could be Nationals right now). The Nationals have a cornerstone player in Ryan Zimmerman and as the farm system gets rebuilt, Washington will be a financial beast in the years to come in one of the best markets in baseball.
National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Chicago Cubs
The St. Louis Cardinals are led by two of the shrewdest figures in baseball in General Manager Walt Jocketty and Manager Tony LaRussa. Jocketty has been second guessed for years, but he’s always built a solid club around the core of Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds on offense and Chris Carpenter in the rotation. With a massive overhaul in the rotation with the loss of Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Jason Marquis many will question this year’s success. With Adam Wainwright, Kip Wells, and Braden Looper moving to the rotation, the Cardinals will be as strong as last year with another 80+ wins club. The Brewers have been the hot pick this spring, but I think they are still a year away. Their success is hinged on Ben Sheets returning as the healthy, ace of the staff. Dave Bush and free agent acquisition Suppan is a pair of underrated starters and closer Francisco Cordero is possibly the most underrated closer in the game. Prince Fielder naturally took the leadership role with the club last season and he looks to take the next step to superstardom. This is a pivotal year for Ricki Weeks and J.J. Hardy to stay healthy and contribute. The Houston Astros finally got the big bat for the middle of their order in the off-season by signing Carlos Lee. The Astros had a woefully anemic offense in 2006, so with Lee in the middle to protect Lance Berkman the club should be a better offensive team. The rotation is still questionable as Roger Clemens has not made up his mind about returning yet. Best friend Andy Pettitte returned to his original club the New York Yankees. Roy Oswalt remains as the man at the top of the rotation. Brad Lidge is still the closer for now (since this was written, Lidge was replaced as closer by Dan Wheeler). The Cincinnati Reds enter year two of the Wayne Krivsky era. The club had a large turnover to the roster last season, but the organization is getting rebuilt in the image of the Twins by Krivsky. Ken Griffey moves to right field this year, but the most intriguing story has to be Rule Five selection Josh Hamilton. If Hamilton becomes the impact player he was initially drafted to be, the Reds could be on the fast track to long-term success. Pirate fans have been waiting for more than a decade for a .500 team. This could be that year. The club’s big off-season acquisition was former Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche. With Jason Bay finally having some protection, the offense should be much improved. The rotation is young and talented. The club success and Dave Littlefield tenure is tied to the success of these young pitchers. The Chicago Cubs made the biggest splash of the off-season by spending obscene amounts of money to acquire Alfonzo Soriano among others. I see this year’s Cubs as a team similar to the 1994 Mets and eighties George Bell Cubs with lots of money and hype that will not translate into wins. Considering the how much money was spent, there are simply two many holes and questions around this club. Now with the future sale of the club, there will be too many questions and too few answers at Wrigley Field this year. There is one certainty, though. Wrigley will sellout all summer as usual.
National League West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants
Few organizations have had more impressive transformations than the Ned Colletti built Los Angeles Dodgers. With Logan White’s prosperous farm system beginning to join Dodger Stadium in the form of Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, and James Loney along with future third baseman stud Andy LaRoche, the Dodgers have a solid mix of veterans and youth. Sluggers Nomar Garciapara and Jeff Kent make up the right side of the infield while catcher Russell Martin could be the future of the franchise from behind the plate. Former San Francisco Giant Jason Schmidt joins the rotation along with free agent signee Brett Tomko. Derek Lowe returns at the top of the rotation along with Brad Penny as two of the most underrated and success starters in baseball. If everything comes together as I think it will, this could be the first World Series at Chavez Ravine since 1988. The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the most stocked farm systems in baseball. General Manager Josh Byrnes continues to build a veteran heavy rotation with Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, and Livan Hernandez behind last year’s NL Cy Young Brandon Webb. The offense will come from centerfielder Eric Byrnes and young offensive forces Conner Jackson and Stephen Drew along with future star centerfielder Chris Young. I like the San Diego Padres club as much as any team in baseball with one of the best bullpens in baseball along with a solid, deep rotation with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and David Wells. Health will always be an issue with veterans and I think that will end the Padres NL West dominance this season. The Colorado Rockies are starting to look like a team built for the future. The heart of the order has young sluggers Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Brad Hawpe. Willy Taveras and Kazuo Matsui provide a solid lead-off for the top of the order. I really like Taveras and think he’ll reward the Rockies if they are patient with him. The rotation will continue to be a battle of attrition for starters with higher earned run averages than the rest of the league, but forming young pitchers early to handle this stress could finally put this organization in the right direction in the years to come. The San Francisco Giants are going to be about Barry Bonds chase of Hank Aaron’s home run record. Barry Zito is the new “Barry” poster boy, but it remains to be seen if he will be the true ace of the staff that he’s paid to be. Matt Cain has one of the brightest futures of any pitcher in baseball. The offense is made up of a host of veterans and much like the Padres could battle injuries throughout the year. New-old manager Bruce Bochey will miss the reliability he had at the end of games in San Diego with Trevor Hoffman, but getting used to the Bonds circus will be his biggest adjustment.
Playoffs:
National League Division Series:
- Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets, 3-2
- Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals, 3-1
National League Championship Series:
- Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves, 4-3
National League Champion: Los Angeles Dodgers
World Series:
- Detroit Tigers over the Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-1.
Detroit literally handed the World Series away in 2006, but this year their experience and ability to handle the pressure on world’s greatest stage will carry them to their first World Series since 1984.
Individual Awards:
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Minnesota Twins (Nate Robertson could emerge as the second best left hander in baseball).
NL Cy Young: Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves
AL Rookie of the Year: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox (the true Rookie of the Year, not a veteran from Japan playing his first year in MLB, will be Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Washington, Texas Rangers
NL Manager of the Year: Ned Yost, Milwaukee Brewers
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MEDIA of the WEEK
Clips to Click:
- Is the MLB destroying Japan's national pastime? by Robert Whiting of The Japan Times
- Aaron Owes Bonds Nothing by Terrence Moore of the Atlanta-Journal Constitution
- Out of Imus's Bigotry, a Zero Tolerance for Hate by Michael Wilbon of the Washington Post
- Insensitivity cost Campanis in '87 by Dick Heller of the Washington Times
Baseball Book of the Week:
- Crazy '08: How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnates Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History by Cait Murphy
Book of the Week (Fiction):
- The Sportswriter by Richard Ford
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If you are interested in more frequent postings about Baseball Beat with Charley Steiner, please save a link for Baseball Beat: the Blog and check it for daily updates. I post the tentative rundown prior to the show daily with a full rundown including guest summaries following Beat each day. Feel free to drop me a line anytime at BaseballBeat@xmradio.com.
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