If 2007 had a theme, it would be the year of the milestones. Barry Bonds chases Hank Aaron’s all-time home run record, Tom Glavine looks to gain his 300th win, Craig Biggio nears 3,000 hits, and a record five players take aim at 500 career home runs in the same season. Besides the individual accomplishments, it’s the teams that are going to keep our attention all season. Whether you’re a Dodgers, Royals, or Blue Jays fan, there is hope for all on Opening Day. Before every season over the last seven years, I’ve put together a preview of the season with my picks for friends and family. This year, I’m making it available via our new blog.
American League East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The Yankees have depth and offense similar to previous incarnations of the Red Sox this decade. Comparing the lineups and rotations, I simply have more faith in the pinstripes. The question of the summer will surround Alex Rodriguez contract, but a solid 2007 and any playoff success will turn boos into cheers. No matter what happens, someone else will be signing the checks in 2008. Boston has more questions than a team spending $100+ million in payroll should have. Their rotation on paper looks like a nice fantasy squad, but the reality is no one has a clue what to expect. The bullpen has improved, but could be a problem when Schilling, Beckett, and Wakefield have short outings. Schilling and Wakefield look to decline based on age, and Schilling spring conditioning is troubling. With question marks at second and centerfield, it looks to be a frustrating summer in Boston. Frustrating if you wanted a World Series or division title that is. Toronto shocked many by finishing second in the AL East in 2006. The Blue Jays will again challenge for second, but I see the Red Sox returning to their second place role in the division. The Jays continue to have talent around the field, but the back-end of the rotation is going to cause them fits during Boston and New York series. If A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay can stay healthy, look for the Toronto to challenge for the Wild Card. As with most years, the Orioles can only improve. While the moves look minor on paper, the bullpen should be much improved and the rotation’s mix of veterans (Jaret Wright and Steve Traschel) and youth (Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Hayden Penn) will be more consistent after a full spring training with pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Last season, many of the young arms were participating in the World Baseball Classic. Nick Markakis looks to make the leap this year and make himself a household name around the game. The Devil Rays have as deep of a minor league system as any team in baseball. This year the patience and fruits of their labor should begin to show on the offensive side of the ball. With Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, and Elijah Dukes in the outfield and designated hitter, the offense can only get better. If B.J. Upton can lock in at second base, he can be the new “nice stick, no glove” Alfonzo Soriano of the position. As has always been the case in Tampa Bay, the Rays simply do not have the pitching to compete and will lose a lot of 10-6 games.
American League Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals
The Tigers made heads turn in 2006, but in the new season I think they’ll put it all together. Jim Leyland has this team on the right track and in the spring they looked to be the best team in baseball. Kenny Rogers’ injury will hurt the rotation, but the depth of young arms will sustain the rotation while he’s out. Andrew Miller may be one of the best future flamethrowers in baseball. If Todd Jones falters in the closer role this year, Joel Zumaya is waiting in the wings. The most underrated move of the off-season has to be the club’s acquisition of Gary Sheffield. As has been case for Sheffield throughout his career, his timing was off as he signed a new extension only weeks before the free agent market skyrocketed. Minnesota is being overlooked by many this spring with changes in the rotation including the loss of Francisco Liriano to injury for the season. I’ll go with the track record of Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire. The rotation is missing the retired Brad Radke and Liriano, but veterans Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson are only holding spots in the rotation until Matt Garza and other young arms are eased into the rotation. Johan Santana was slowly brought along and the Twins will follow the same track with their young pitchers. Any club with Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau as cornerstones will compete. The depth of the division and the poorly conceived unbalanced schedule will cost the club the Wild Card. The Indians have been on the cusp of taking the next step for three years. Is this the year they turn the corner? Not with their questionable bullpen and rotation. The bullpen is not drastically improved from last season. The offense is going to score runs in bunches, but I do not see the arms in the farm system that can make an impact if called upon. The White Sox had one of my favorite off-seasons in baseball. I think the John Danks for Brandon McCarthy trade will be a feather in the cap of General Manager Ken Williams for year’s to come. Williams has become one of the most progressive General Managers in the game for thinking outside the box. The club still raised its payroll from last season, so there are no white flags going up in Chicago this year. Chicago has a lot of players in contract years including Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle, but for some reason I think Williams has a plan. Kansas City made a splash in free agency by overpaying for starting pitcher Gil Meche. It was a signal to the fan base and organization that the Royals are a Major League team again. The best move in Kansas City last year was the hiring of Dayton Moore as General Manager. With all respect to Allard Baird, there finally looks to be a long-term commander with a plan in Kansas City. There is a long way to go to respectability, but a road is being paved with Alex Gordon as the new cornerstone of the franchise.
American League West
1. Oakland A’s
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim*
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
Oakland lost Barry Zito and Frank Thomas to free agency, but for a franchise that’s lost more talent this decade than American Idol, I think they’ll manage. The Athletics replaced Frank Thomas with Mike Piazza and Jay Payton with Shannon Stewart. Bobby Crosby, Milton Bradley, and Rich Harden have the chance to have breakout years if they can stay health. If so, Crosby and Harden are MVP and Cy Young contenders. Look for a typical slow start for the A’s, but it’s the enjoyable second half that’s the most fun anyway. The Angels have been the trendy pick this spring. With Jared Weaver and Bartolo Colon slowly returning from injuries and the Gary Matthews, Jr. debacle casting a cloud over the club, I think Anaheim will have a tough time early in the season. Casey Kotchman and other prospects need to reward General Manager Bill Stoneman’s patience by taking the next step in their development. I do think the Angels will have a strong second half and beat out the Red Sox and Twins for the Wild Card on the strength of a weaker division and the unbalanced schedule. The best managerial move of the off-season has to be the Texas Rangers hiring of Ron Washington as manager. Sadly, the same successful moves didn’t translate to the roster. The club is banking its success on Sammy Sosa to fill the middle of the order. He should fill some seats early in the season, but look for him to fade in the second half along with the club. Seattle has been in a terrible tailspin over the last three years. Felix Hernandez is the future of the franchise, so his further development this year will alleviate concerns for the rotation future consistency. Its Ichiro Suzuki’s walk-year, so getting him signed to an extension is integral for the club. In the end, the M’s are not going to be a factor in the AL West.
Playoffs
American League Division Series:
- New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 3-1
- Detroit Tigers over Oakland A’s, 3-1
- Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees, 4-2
Detroit Tigers
Next week, I'll post my National League Season Preview along with a World Series pick and individual award winners.
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MEDIA of the WEEK
Best Blog on Baseball: Buster Olney's Blog If you listen to Baseball Beat with Charley Steiner, you've heard this mentioned before. Buster Olney's blog is the best place to start each and every baseball day. If your not reading it daily, you are truly missing your baseball breakfast to get your day started.
Clips to Click: Two Articles by Jack Curry of the New York Times:
- Artifacts Tied to Steroids Find Place in Hall’s Museum
- To Tighten Drug Tests, Baseball Teams Secretly Monitor Players
Baseball Book of the Week:
- The Soul of Baseball: A Road Trip Through Buck O'Neil's America by Joe Posnanski
Book of the Week:
- The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century 2.0 (Updated and Expanded) by Thomas L. Friedman
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If you are interested in more frequent postings about Baseball Beat with Charley Steiner, please save a link for Baseball Beat: the Blog and check it for daily updates. Feel free to drop me a line anytime at BaseballBeat@xmradio.com.
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